Nigeria’s ambition to reduce its dependence on the oil sector and build a stronger non-oil economy faces a fresh test, as new trade figures show a sharp decline in manufactured and agricultural exports, despite the Federal Government’s renewed push to expand value addition.

The latest Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that manufactured goods exports fell by 51.1 per cent year-on-year to N393.03 billion in the second quarter of 2026, from N803.81 billion in the corresponding period of 2025.

Agricultural exports also fell sharply by 36.09 per cent, from N1.26 trillion in Q2 2025 to N802.99 billion in the period under review.

This comes at a time when the Federal Government has identified export diversification, manufacturing and value addition as key pillars of its strategy to move Nigeria away from its longstanding dependence on crude oil.

The Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, said in February that the government would prioritise expanding non-oil exports in 2026 as part of efforts to deepen economic diversification. The ministry has also said it would intensify efforts to mobilise investment and expand non-oil exports.

The latest NBS figures, however, suggest that the country’s export expansion remains heavily dependent on oil and other primary commodities. Total exports rose 18.77 per cent year-on-year to N27.02 trillion in Q2 2026, from N22.75 trillion in Q2 2025. Exports also increased by 27.64 per cent from N21.17 trillion in Q1.

But crude oil alone accounted for N12.91 trillion of the earnings, up 7.93 per cent year-on-year, while other oil products contributed N10.38 trillion, after rising 34.08 per cent. By contrast, non-oil products accounted for just N3.73 trillion or 13.8 per cent of total exports, even though non-crude exports as a whole stood at N14.11 trillion.

The manufacturing figures, however, provide perhaps the clearest indication of the challenge facing Nigeria’s diversification agenda.

Manufactured goods accounted for N9.9 trillion, representing 23.9 per cent of total merchandise trade in Q2. Yet, manufactured exports amounted to only N393.03 billion.

Although this represented a 29.87 per cent increase from the N302.64 billion recorded in Q1 2026, the year-on-year collapse of 51.1 per cent is significant.

The largest manufactured export during the quarter was vessels and other floating structures for breaking up, valued at N92.32 billion and exported to Côte d’Ivoire. This was followed by unwrought aluminium alloys worth N52.86 billion, exported to Japan, and tobacco cigarettes valued at N23.47 billion, exported to Burkina Faso.

Africa accounted for the largest share of manufactured exports at N213.44 billion, followed by Asia with N114.73 billion and Europe with N49.37 billion.

The decline becomes more striking when compared with the value of manufactured goods Nigeria imported during the quarter. Manufactured goods imports stood at N1.87 trillion, accounting for 12.99 per cent of total imports.

Machinery and transport equipment alone accounted for N5.46 trillion, while chemicals and related products were valued at N2.51 trillion.

While total merchandise exports rose 18.77 per cent year-on-year in Q2, manufactured exports fell by more than half and agricultural exports by more than a third.

Similarly, agricultural exports fell to N802.99 billion in Q2, down 36.09 per cent from N1.26 trillion a year earlier and 31.51 per cent from N1.17 trillion in Q1 2026.

Meanwhile, agricultural imports increased, as Nigeria imported agricultural products worth N1.20 trillion in Q2, up 1.63 per cent from N1.18 trillion in Q2 2025 and 45.43 per cent from N827.72 billion in the first quarter. Major imports were durum wheat, frozen blue whiting meat and frozen herrings.

Nigeria, therefore, exported substantially less agricultural produce while importing more agricultural goods.
However, oil exports still dominate, as mineral products accounted for N23.52 trillion, or 87.04 per cent of total exports in Q2. Products of the chemical and allied industries contributed N2.14 trillion, while vegetable products accounted for N516.7 billion.

Reacting, National President, Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria (ASBON), Dr Femi Egbesola, noted that the sharp contraction in agricultural and manufactured exports meant that the gains recorded in overall exports were not yet being matched by a corresponding strengthening of the productive sectors that could provide a more sustainable alternative to oil.

He added that despite the government’s promises to diversify exports from oil, the non-oil sector was still struggling. He pointed out that higher export earnings alone might not amount to meaningful diversification if the sectors expected to broaden the country’s export base were contracting.